Market Overview

Global financial markets reacted sharply on Thursday after the U.S. government officially reopened, ending a historic 43-day shutdown. The immediate relief in political risk triggered broad selling in the U.S. dollar, while gold—after touching a three-week high—fell sharply as traders took profits. Oil markets stabilized following heavy losses driven by oversupply concerns.

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) dropped below 99 intraday, closing 0.29% lower at 99.18, while U.S. Treasury yields moved modestly higher, reflecting improving risk sentiment.

Gold initially surged above $4,244, its highest level since late October, before reversing sharply to close 0.58% lower at $4,171.22, in a classic “buy the rumour, sell the fact” reaction.

Crude oil markets found a floor after Wednesday’s aggressive sell-off, with WTI closing at $58.51 and Brent at $62.57, both posting modest gains as the dollar weakened and risk appetite improved.

Technical Analysis

GBP/USD – Bearish Bias Persists Below 1.3200

GBP/USD remains under downward pressure, capped by the 20-day EMA and trading well below the 50-, 100- and 200-day moving averages. Momentum indicators signal weak recovery attempts, suggesting a sustained bearish trend unless buyers reclaim the 1.3200 level.

• Major Resistance: 1.3200, 1.3295

• Major Support: 1.2715, 1.2575

A break below 1.2715 could accelerate selling, while a close above 1.3295 may shift sentiment.

AUD/USD – Bulls Confront Resistance at 0.6584

AUD/USD edged higher toward 0.6584, riding the upper Bollinger Band as strong Australian labour data lifted sentiment. However, momentum remains mixed ahead of U.S. macro releases.

• Major Resistance: 0.6584, 0.6620

• Major Support: 0.6480, 0.6420

Failure to clear resistance may trigger a pullback toward 0.6480.

XAU/USD – Gold Retreats After Testing 4,350 Resistance

Gold’s broader trend remains bullish as price holds above major EMAs. However, slowing momentum near the 4,350 resistance zone triggered profit-taking.

• Major Resistance: 4,350, 4,400

• Major Support: 3,930, 3,800

A sustained break above 4,400 would confirm bullish continuation.

Global Market Developments

1. Gold – Sharp Reversal After Shutdown Relief Rally

Gold’s early surge above $4,220–$4,245 reflected traders’ expectations of renewed rate-cut bets following the government reopening. However, as Treasury yields rose and Fed commentary turned mixed, bullion fell sharply.

Economists now assign roughly a 52–54% probability to a December rate cut—down from nearly 80% earlier in the week.

2. Oil – Stabilizes Despite Large Inventory Build

The EIA reported a 6.413M-barrel crude inventory build, signaling persistent oversupply. However, a weaker dollar and improved sentiment following the government reopening helped WTI rebound from the $58.00 support zone.

3. AUD – Strong Labour Data Lifts Aussie

Australia’s labour market outperformed expectations:

• Employment Change: +42.2K

• Unemployment Rate: 4.3%

• Full-Time Jobs: +55.3K

Markets scaled back expectations of near-term RBA cuts, boosting AUD before global risk sentiment capped gains.

4. GBP – Weak GDP Adds Pressure on BoE

UK GDP disappointed:

• QoQ: 0.1% vs 0.3% expected

• Industrial Production: –2.0%

Markets now price an 85% probability of a BoE cut in December. Despite weak data, GBP strengthened on broad USD softness.

5. USD – Drops After Government Reopens

The end of the 43-day shutdown triggered USD selling as risk appetite improved. The DXY fell to 99.15, its lowest in two weeks.

Fed officials remain divided, making December’s decision genuinely data-dependent.

Upcoming Data to Watch – Nov 14 (CNH)

• Industrial Production (YoY): 5.8% forecast

• Retail Sales (YoY): 2.2% forecast

• Unemployment Rate: 5.2% forecast

Better-than-expected data may boost CNH and support risk assets.