Market Overview

Global markets were driven by central bank decisions and inflation data on Thursday, as the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada both delivered rate cuts, while Australia’s hotter-than-expected CPI data challenged expectations of policy easing.

The Federal Reserve reduced its policy rate by 25 basis points to the 3.75%–4.00% range, marking its second cut this year. However, Chair Jerome Powell struck a cautious tone, warning that a December rate cut is “not a foregone conclusion.” This tempered risk appetite, lifted U.S. Treasury yields, and strengthened the dollar.

Meanwhile, the Bank of Canada (BoC) also cut its key rate by 25 bps to 2.25%, calling it “about the right level.” The statement’s hawkish tone triggered a sharp Canadian dollar rally, as markets interpreted it as a signal of policy stabilization rather than the start of an easing cycle.

In contrast, Australia’s Q3 CPI came in at 3.2% YoY, well above forecasts of 2.9%, effectively eliminating near-term RBA rate-cut expectations. The Australian dollar surged, supported by rising inflation and improved sentiment.

Elsewhere, sterling remained under pressure amid growing fiscal worries in the U.K., while oil prices hovered around $60 per barrel after a strong U.S. inventory draw and ahead of the Trump–Xi trade talks. Gold retreated from $4,020 to $3,928 per ounce as higher yields weighed on non-yielding assets

Traders now turn their focus to upcoming Bank of Japan policy decisions and Eurozone GDP and inflation releases, which may set the tone for early November trading.

Technical Analysis

AUD/USD – Extends Recovery Toward 0.6620 as Buyers Regain Momentum

The pair continues to rebound after breaking out of the consolidation near 0.6510. Despite a minor bearish MACD crossover, RSI maintains a bullish bias and price action remains above key EMAs. A sustained move above 0.6620 could target 0.6680, while 0.6520 serves as key support.

Key Levels:

• Resistance: 0.6620 / 0.6680
• Support: 0.6520 / 0.6480

USD/CAD – Slips Toward 1.3910 as Loonie Strengthens Post-Bo

USD/CAD corrected lower, testing support at 1.3910 following the BoC’s hawkish tone. RSI below 50 reflects fading bullish momentum, though oversold conditions may lead to a short-term bounce.

Key Levels:

• Resistance: 1.4050 / 1.4260
• Support: 1.3910 / 1.3860

USOIL – Struggles to Hold $60 as Momentum Fades

WTI crude oil faces difficulty sustaining above $60 after an early rebound. The MACD’s bearish crossover and neutral RSI suggest weakening momentum. A break below $56.90 may expose $53.70 next, while recovery above $65.20 would signal renewed bullish interest.

Key Levels:

• Resistance: 65.20 / 70.30
• Support: 56.90 / 53.70

Economic Highlights

1. Fed Rate Cut and Powell’s Remarks
The Fed cut rates by 25 bps, but Powell’s caution dampened dovish bets. The USD rallied, while gold retreated from highs as yields rose.

2. Bank of Canada’s Hawkish Cut
BoC’s move to 2.25% with a “pause” signal boosted CAD across pairs, particularly against USD and GBP.

3. Australia’s Hot CPI Print
Headline CPI at 3.2% ended speculation of near-term easing, pushing the AUD higher across the board.

4. Sterling Weakness Continues
Rising BoE rate-cut bets and fiscal worries weighed on GBP, keeping it one of the day’s underperformers.

5. Oil and Gold Diverge
Oil remained steady on stock draws and trade optimism, while gold corrected lower as higher yields limited upside.