Market Digest:

Markets are being driven by a shifting macro narrative, where geopolitical de-escalation is colliding with persistent inflation and central bank uncertainty.
Oil, after a massive ~77% Q1 surge, is now pulling back as Iran tensions ease, triggering profit-taking but leaving supply risks elevated.
Gold has attempted a rebound toward the $4,650–$4,680 zone but remains under pressure as markets price out Fed rate cuts, increasing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets.
Meanwhile, the US dollar has softened below the 100 level on improving risk sentiment, though its broader bullish structure remains intact.
In FX, AUD continues to lag despite a hawkish RBA bias, while CAD weakens toward 1.40 as USD demand dominates.
With key US data ahead, markets are now entering a high-stakes phase where macro data and geopolitical developments will dictate the next directional move.

Technical Analysis:

AUD/USD – Breaks Below Key Support as Bearish Momentum Builds
USD/CAD – Tests Key Resistance as Overbought Signals Emerge
XAU/USD – Struggles Below Resistance as Bearish Pressure Persists

AUD/USD – Breaks Below Key Support as Bearish Momentum Builds

Technical Analysis
AUD/USD is showing clear bearish momentum after breaking below key support near the 0.6925 region, with price now trading below both the 20 and 50 EMAs, confirming short- to medium-term downside pressure.
Momentum indicators support this move, as RSI remains weak and MACD maintains a bearish crossover, although the shrinking histogram suggests selling pressure may begin to slow.
Bollinger Bands indicate the pair is entering an oversold zone, raising the probability of a short-term corrective bounce, but the broader structure still favors downside continuation unless price reclaims the 0.6925 resistance level.

Technical Indicators & Key Levels

Indicators:
RSI (14):
41 - Bearish market signal - indicating downtrend/selling pressure

MACD (12,26,9):
MACD line < Signal line - Bearish crossover market signal - indicating downward momentum increasing
Histogram shrinking - Momentum slowing market signal - indicating weakening trend

Bollinger Bands (20,2):
Price breaks below lower band - Oversold market signal - indicating price may bounce or reverse upward
Bands widening - High volatility market signal - indicating a strong move is forming

Moving Averages (D1):
20 & 50 EMA - Price remains below - indicating medium-term bearish trend
100 & 200 EMA - Price remains above - indicating long-term bullish trend

Key Levels:
Major Resistance: 0.6925 , then 0.6980.
Major Support: 0.6735 , then 0.6675.

USD/CAD – Tests Key Resistance as Overbought Signals Emerge

Technical Analysis
USD/CAD is testing a key resistance zone near 1.3940 after a strong bullish run, with price trading above all major moving averages, confirming a robust upward trend across multiple timeframes.
Momentum remains strong as indicated by the bullish MACD crossover and expanding histogram, but RSI and Bollinger Bands signal overbought conditions, increasing the likelihood of a short-term pullback or consolidation.
A break above 1.3940 could open the path toward 1.4105, while failure to sustain above this level may trigger a corrective move back toward the 1.3910 support zone.

Technical Indicators & Key Levels

Indicators:
RSI (14):
71 - Overbought market signal - indicating a possible bearish reversal

MACD (12,26,9):
MACD line > Signal line - Bullish crossover market signal - indicating Upward momentum building
Histogram widening - Momentum growing market signal - indicating bigger price swings (up or down)

Bollinger Bands (20,2):
Price breaks above upper band - Overbought market signal - indicating price may pull back or reverse downwards
Bands widening - High volatility market signal - indicating a strong move is forming

Moving Averages (D1):
20 , 50 & 100 EMA - Price remains above - indicating a strong medium/long-term bullish trend
200 EMA - Price breaking above - indicating long-term bearish momentum weakening and possible bullish trend starting

Key Levels:
Major Resistance: 1.3940 , then 1.4105.
Major Support: 1.3910 , then 1.3560.

XAU/USD – Struggles Below Resistance as Bearish Pressure Persists

Technical Analysis
XAU/USD remains under bearish pressure despite a recent rebound attempt, with price still trading below the 20 and 50 EMAs, which now act as dynamic resistance.
Momentum indicators confirm this weakness, as RSI remains subdued and MACD maintains a bearish crossover with expanding histogram, signaling increasing volatility.
The pair is currently attempting to stabilize above the 100 EMA, suggesting some loss of downside momentum, but the broader structure remains fragile.
A failure to break above the 4,660 resistance zone could lead to renewed selling toward 4,320, while a confirmed breakout would shift momentum toward a deeper recovery.

Technical Indicators & Key Levels

Indicators:
RSI (14):
45 - Bearish market signal - indicating downtrend/selling pressure

MACD (12,26,9):
MACD line < Signal line - Bearish crossover market signal - indicating downward momentum increasing
Histogram widening - Momentum growing market signal - indicating bigger price swings (up or down)

Bollinger Bands (20,2):
Price riding lower band - Bearish market signal - indicating strong selling pressure
Bands widening - High volatility market signal - indicating a strong move is forming

Moving Averages (D1):
20 & 50 EMA - Price approaching - indicating medium-term resistance level.
100 EMA - Price breaking above - indicating medium/long-term bearish momentum weakening and possible bullish trend starting.
200 EMA - Price remains above - indicating long-term bullish trend

Key Levels:
Major Resistance: 4,660 , then 4,880.
Major Support: 4,320 , then 4,195.