Market Digest

Markets were dominated by a combination of Fed hawkish policy signals and escalating geopolitical tensions, creating sharp divergence across asset classes.
The Federal Reserve reinforced a higher-for-longer rate outlook, boosting the US dollar and pressuring gold, which slid as yields climbed and safe-haven demand was outweighed by monetary tightening.
Oil surged toward the $100 mark, supported by Middle East supply disruption risks and Strait of Hormuz tensions, keeping volatility elevated despite bearish US inventory data.
In FX, the USD remained dominant, while AUD strength from a hawkish RBA was capped by dollar resilience, and CAD weakened as BoC caution contrasted with Fed firmness.
Markets remain highly headline-driven and volatility-sensitive, setting the stage for potential breakout moves across currencies and commodities.

Technical Analysis

AUD/USD – Pullback Below 0.7150 Resistance
AUD/USD shows a short-term corrective pullback after failing to sustain gains above 0.7150. While long-term bullish trends remain intact above 50, 100, and 200 EMAs, RSI neutralizing and shrinking MACD histogram suggest weakening momentum. Key levels: Resistance 0.7150 / 0.7265, Support 0.6925 / 0.6735.

USD/CAD – Rebounds Toward 1.3710 Resistance
USD/CAD shows early bullish recovery, reclaiming the 20 EMA and testing 1.3710 resistance. MACD neutrality and narrowing Bollinger Bands indicate consolidation, with upside potential toward 1.3910 if resistance breaks. Key levels: Resistance 1.3910 / 1.4105, Support 1.3710 / 1.3560.

USOIL – Rally Extends Toward $100
WTI Crude remains in a strong bullish trend, approaching $100 after breakout from prior consolidation. RSI at overbought levels signals possible short-term pullback, but broader structure remains bullish above 93.65. Upside targets: 122.40 / 126.80. Support: 93.65 / 83.55.

Economic News

XAU/USD – Gold Slides as Fed Hawkish Hold Strengthens Dollar
The Fed held rates at 3.50%-3.75% and signaled only one 25bp cut in 2026. Treasury yields climbed, US dollar strengthened, and gold dropped toward $4,850–$4,820, reflecting dominance of monetary policy over safe-haven demand.

USOIL – Oil Supported by Middle East Supply Risks
WTI Crude rebounded toward $99 after regional attacks on Iran’s energy infrastructure. Despite a US inventory build of 6.16M barrels, geopolitical risk premium maintained elevated prices, highlighting headline-driven volatility.

AUD – Supported by Hawkish RBA and Energy Terms of Trade
AUD/USD initially held near 0.7120, then fell toward 0.7020 as USD strength prevailed. Elevated energy prices and hawkish RBA comments offered some support, reflecting Australia’s relative advantage among developed markets.

CAD – Loonie Weakens as BoC Holds Rates
BoC kept rates at 2.25%, emphasizing caution amid geopolitical and domestic growth risks. USD strength pressured CAD, though oil-linked support limited downside. USD/CAD moved toward 1.3720–1.3750.

USD – Dollar Rallies as Fed Hawkish Hold and Hot PPI Reinforce Higher-for-Longer
USD strengthened broadly after Fed’s hawkish hold and hotter-than-expected PPI data (Headline: 0.7% m/m, 3.4% y/y; Core: 0.5% m/m, 3.9% y/y). Dollar index rose above 100.00 to 100.30 before minor retracement.

Upcoming Economic Indicators – March 19

AUD: Employment Change, Unemployment Rate – Impacts RBA policy expectations
JPY: BOJ Policy Rate, Monetary Policy Statement – Impacts JPY strength
GBP: Claimant Count Change, Bank Rate, MPC Vote Split – Impacts GBP direction
CHF: SNB Policy Rate, Monetary Policy Assessment – Impacts CHF
USD: Unemployment Claims – Impacts short-term USD momentum
EUR: ECB Main Refinancing Rate & Press Conference – Guides EUR direction