Market Overview

On Wednesday, the U.S. dollar retreated slightly as Treasury yields declined and traders grew confident that the Federal Reserve could begin rate cuts as early as December. Gold prices jumped nearly 2%, surpassing the $4,200 mark — their highest since October — while crude oil prices plunged more than 4% after OPEC projected a balanced oil market by 2026.

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) closed around 99.46, marking a mild loss for the day. The 10-year Treasury yield dropped to 4.07%, while the 2-year yield fell to 3.57%.

Gold Rallies as Fed Easing Bets Strengthen

Gold surged to an intraday high of $4,211 per ounce, buoyed by falling yields and rising speculation that the Federal Reserve may deliver a rate cut in December. Optimism over the U.S. government’s reopening further supported sentiment, signaling the end of the data blackout period and reviving market activity.

Analysts note that continued signs of economic slowdown and fiscal uncertainty could keep gold in a long-term structural uptrend, with major banks now forecasting targets above $5,000 by 2026.

Key Levels:

• Resistance: $4,350 / $4,500

• Support: $3,930 / $3,800

Oil Slumps on Oversupply Outlook

Crude oil prices dropped sharply as OPEC’s latest report indicated that global supply will meet demand by 2026, reversing its previous view of a shortage.
WTI crude fell to $58.44 per barrel, down 4.14%, while Brent dropped to $62.43, down 3.79%.

The shift in outlook was compounded by U.S. inventory builds, a stronger dollar earlier in the day, and news that Saudi Arabia had lowered its official selling price to Asia — all fueling bearish sentiment. Analysts warn that the market could remain volatile if OPEC+ fails to address the growing surplus.

Key Levels:

• Resistance: $61.00 / $62.80

• Support: $58.00 / $56.50

USD/JPY Tests 155.10 as Yen Weakens Further

The Japanese yen hit a nine-month low, with the USD/JPY pair testing resistance near 155.10.
Remarks from Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi calling for closer coordination with the Bank of Japan were interpreted as a signal that monetary tightening would remain delayed.

Technically, USD/JPY remains bullish, supported by RSI readings near 65 and price action above all key moving averages.

Key Levels:

• Resistance: 155.10 / 156.50

• Support: 154.20 / 153.00

Sterling Weakens Amid Political and Fiscal Tension

The British pound fell sharply following reports of internal leadership tensions and fiscal tightening plans by Chancellor Rachel Reeves. Markets reacted to renewed political uncertainty and data showing a rise in unemployment to 5%, fueling expectations for a Bank of England rate cut in December.

Key Levels:

• Resistance: 1.3170 / 1.3290

• Support: 1.2580 / 1.2420

Upcoming Economic Indicators – November 13

Japan PPI (m/m) – Forecast: 0.2% | Previous: 0.3%
→ If higher than expected: Bullish for JPY
→ If lower than expected: Bearish for JPY

Australia Employment Data – Forecast: +20K Jobs | Previous: +14.9K
→ Strong job growth would support AUD, while weak data could pressure the currency further.