Global financial markets ended last week on a volatile note as uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve’s policy path and the ongoing U.S. government shutdown weighed on investor sentiment.

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) initially climbed before reversing to close 0.13% lower at 99.53, snapping a two-week winning streak. The 10-year Treasury yield settled at 4.104%, while the 2-year yield, a key gauge for short-term rate expectations, closed at 3.568%.

Dollar Dips as Data Delays and Policy Ambiguity Fuel Caution

With the U.S. government shutdown delaying the release of October’s non-farm payrolls, traders were left without key labor market data to guide expectations. The lack of clarity prompted a cautious tone, with the dollar weakening against major peers, including the euro and yen.

Economists at Jefferies noted that markets are “hypersensitive to any labor market signal,” and the data blackout has amplified volatility. While some traders priced in a 66% chance of a December Fed rate cut, Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized that rate reductions remain contingent on incoming data, keeping uncertainty high.

Gold Strengthens as Risk Aversion Rises

Spot gold closed the week at $4,005.21 per ounce, up 0.7%, while U.S. gold futures settled at $4,009.80. The metal gained as the dollar weakened and safe-haven demand surged amid political and economic turbulence.

Analysts at CWG Markets highlighted that the uncertainty of a U.S. government shutdown and the sharp weekly decline in Wall Street indices—with the Nasdaq suffering its biggest weekly drop in seven months—bolstered gold’s defensive appeal.
Technically, as long as gold remains above the $3,978–$3,979 support zone, it may aim for $4,032–$4,056 in the short term.

Oil Rebounds but Faces Ongoing Supply Pressure

Crude oil prices saw mild rebounds on Friday, with WTI closing up 0.49% at $59.69 per barrel and Brent rising 0.37% to $63.45. However, both benchmarks recorded weekly declines of around 2%, pressured by rising global output and softening demand.

Market attention also focused on a meeting between U.S. President Trump and Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, which investors speculated could lead to easing of restrictions on Hungarian imports of Russian oil — a factor that briefly supported prices.

Still, with U.S. crude inventories rising due to higher imports and slower refinery activity, oil’s upside remains capped near the $60 psychological level.

Global Equities Struggle as Tech Stocks Retreat

U.S. equities closed mixed, ending a three-week rally. The Dow Jones rose 0.16%, while the S&P 500 added 0.13% and the Nasdaq slipped 0.21%, recording a 3.04% weekly loss.
Tech giants dragged the market down — Tesla fell 3.68%, Google dropped 2%, and Microsoft slid for the eighth consecutive day, its longest losing streak since 2011.

In Europe, major indices also fell: Germany’s DAX dropped 0.69%, the FTSE 100 lost 0.55%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 shed 0.8%, mirroring global caution.

CWG Outlook: Short-Term Dollar Weakness, Gold Support Above $4,000

CWG Markets analysts expect short-term dollar softness to persist as traders favor risk-hedging assets. The dollar may remain range-bound between 99.85–99.35, while gold is expected to stay buoyant above $4,000, supported by geopolitical risk and safe-haven inflows.

For traders, CWG suggests a sell-on-highs strategy for the dollar and a buy-on-dips approach for gold, maintaining tight risk management ahead of next week’s U.S. data releases.