Global Market Overview

Global markets kicked off the week with strong optimism following a historic breakthrough in US–China trade negotiations. The two economic giants announced a preliminary trade framework over the weekend, easing tensions and sparking a global rally in equities and risk-sensitive currencies.
The agreement — which includes clauses on export controls, tariffs, and agricultural trade — marked a decisive shift toward de-escalation, fueling a broad “risk-on” sentiment across financial markets.

Gold Retreats Below $4,000 Amid Risk-On Mood

Gold prices saw a sharp decline, dropping below the psychological level of $4,000/oz for the first time in two weeks. The shift away from safe-haven assets reflected renewed investor confidence in global growth prospects.
Despite expectations of a 25 bps rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve later this week, traders largely liquidated gold positions to capture profits from the record-high rally that had peaked near $4,380.
The softer tone in safe-haven demand coincided with a weaker USDX, which fell below 99.00, while Treasury yields held steady.

Technical Outlook (XAU/USD):

• RSI turned neutral near 50, signaling cooling momentum.

• A sustained drop below $3,900 could trigger further declines toward $3,800.

• On the upside, regaining $4,050 would restore bullish confidence targeting $4,350–$4,400.

Australian Dollar Shines as RBA Maintains “Tight” Stance

The Australian Dollar (AUD) outperformed major peers as both trade optimism and hawkish remarks from RBA Governor Michele Bullock boosted investor sentiment.
Bullock stated that monetary policy “remains a little tight,” highlighting stability in inflation and employment data. Her comments, paired with the risk-on environment, lifted AUD/USD beyond 0.6550, with traders eyeing 0.6620–0.6680 in the short term.

Technical Outlook (AUD/USD):

• Price extended above short- and medium-term EMAs, signaling bullish continuation.

• RSI remains above 53, showing sustained buying pressure.

• Immediate support stands at 0.6520; a break below this could invite a correction toward 0.6470.

Yuan Strengthens to One-Month High on Trade Deal and Strong PBOC Fix

The Chinese yuan (CNH) rallied to its strongest level in over a month, supported by optimism surrounding the US–China trade agreement and a firmer PBOC midpoint fix.
China’s central bank set the yuan reference rate at 7.0881, signaling confidence in economic recovery. Moreover, China agreed to delay rare-earth export restrictions by one year, a move that further eased trade tensions.
The USD/CNH pair dropped toward 7.11, marking a clear shift in sentiment favoring the yuan. The move also bolstered risk-linked currencies like the AUD and NZD across the Asia-Pacific region.

Oil Prices Steady Near $61.50 as Supply Factors Limit Gains

Crude oil prices traded steadily near $61.50 per barrel, balancing between bullish and bearish headlines.
On one hand, new U.S. sanctions on Russian oil companies supported prices; on the other, record-high Iraqi exports and rising global storage levels capped upside potential.
Traders now await API and EIA inventory reports later this week, along with potential updates from the upcoming Trump–Xi meeting, which could further shape market direction.

Yen Holds Firm Ahead of BOJ Meeting

The Japanese yen (JPY) remained stable near ¥153 per dollar as traders awaited the Bank of Japan’s policy announcement and signals from newly elected Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi.
Market participants expect the BOJ to maintain current rates but hint at a possible tightening before year-end. Takaichi’s emphasis on fiscal coordination reassured investors that the government remains focused on maintaining financial stability and currency balance.

Euro Supported by Improving German Business Sentiment

The Euro (EUR) gained modestly after the German Ifo Business Climate Index rose to 88.4 in October, exceeding expectations.
This marked the second consecutive monthly improvement in business sentiment, suggesting resilience in Europe’s largest economy.
The ECB is expected to hold rates steady this week, with President Lagarde likely to reinforce a neutral stance amid stabilizing inflation data.

Market Outlook

As optimism builds, the global market focus now shifts toward major central bank decisions — particularly from the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, and Bank of Japan.
The US–China trade progress could continue to drive risk appetite in the near term, while traders monitor whether the Fed’s dovish tone will reinforce or temper the ongoing rally.
Overall, risk-sensitive assets appear poised for short-term strength, while safe-havens like gold may face continued corrective pressure.