Market Overview:
Global financial markets started the week with heightened caution following a weaker-than-expected U.S. CPI report that reignited expectations of an imminent Federal Reserve rate cut. The U.S. Dollar Index briefly fell after the data but managed to close slightly higher at 98.94, snapping a three-day losing streak. Meanwhile, U.S. Treasury yields slipped as bond traders priced in a more dovish monetary path — with the 10-year yield settling at 4.02% and the 2-year yield at 3.49%, reflecting market anticipation of easing policy ahead.

Gold Market:
In Asian trading on Monday, spot gold opened sharply lower, plunging nearly $50 to $4,063.80 per ounce. The decline was driven by a complex mix of factors — from easing geopolitical tensions to renewed optimism in global equities and shifting expectations for U.S. monetary policy. Despite short-term pressure, investors remain cautiously optimistic about gold’s long-term outlook, supported by the likelihood of Fed rate cuts and ongoing geopolitical uncertainties.

Last Friday, spot gold dropped 0.2% to close at $4,118.29 per ounce, marking its first weekly decline in ten weeks. December gold futures ended at $4,137.8 per ounce. Analysts noted that softer U.S. CPI data — with headline inflation up just 3.0% YoY versus 3.1% expected — was insufficient to sustain gold’s earlier rally. Independent trader Tai Wong commented that “while inflation data gave gold and silver a brief lift, the technical picture suggests more downside before consolidation resumes.”

Oil Market:
Oil prices retreated as U.S. sanctions on Russian energy giants raised questions about potential supply disruptions, while traders doubted whether the measures would be fully enforced. WTI crude settled down 0.5% at $61.43 per barrel, and Brent crude slipped 0.41% to $65.68 per barrel. Despite the decline, both benchmarks remain up more than 7% for the week — their strongest weekly performance since mid-June — following sharp gains after sanctions were announced last Thursday.

John Kilduff of Again Capital noted, “Traders are starting to question whether these sanctions will be as strict as initially promised.” Meanwhile, Kuwait’s Oil Minister confirmed that OPEC stands ready to increase production if needed to stabilize global supply.

Currency Market:
The euro strengthened modestly to 1.1630 against the dollar, supported by better-than-expected Eurozone services data, while the British pound slipped 0.15% to 1.33 after stronger U.K. retail sales raised mixed policy expectations. The Japanese yen weakened to 152.85, its lowest in two weeks, as markets anticipated new fiscal stimulus under Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, viewed as dovish on both monetary and fiscal fronts.

Equity Markets:
Wall Street rallied sharply on Friday — the Dow Jones rose 1.02%, the S&P 500 gained 0.79%, and the Nasdaq added 1.15%, all hitting fresh record highs. Chipmakers led the gains, with AMD up 7.6%, Alphabet gaining 2.6%, and Ford Motor surging 12%. European indices also closed higher, led by the FTSE 100 (+0.7%) and DAX (+0.13%).

Technical Analysis:

• Dollar Index (DXY): Resistance seen at 99.15; support at 98.75–98.55. A break below 98.75 may trigger further weakness.

• EUR/USD: Support near 1.1600; resistance at 1.1650–1.1675. Bias remains mildly bullish.

• Gold (XAU/USD): Support at $4,055; resistance at $4,155–$4,199. If prices stabilize above $4,055, an upward retracement toward $4,199 is likely.

• GBP/USD: Support at 1.3270; resistance at 1.3355.

• USD/JPY: Range between 152.40–153.20, with potential selling pressure near the upper boundary.

CWG Market Outlook:
CWG analysts recommend adopting a cautious short-term approach. Dollar positions may favor selling near resistance levels, with profit targets around 30 pips. For gold, buying opportunities may arise near $4,055 with targets toward $4,155, maintaining strict stop-loss discipline.

Investors are reminded to secure partial profits once trades achieve 30 pips and maintain proper position sizing based on risk tolerance.