Market Summary:
On Friday, the U.S. dollar index plunged intraday, falling below the 99 level and closing down 0.56% at 98.835, ending a four-day rally. U.S. Treasury yields surged across the board, with the benchmark 10-year yield closing at 4.036% and the 2-year yield, sensitive to Federal Reserve policy, at 3.512%.

Early Monday Asia Session (October 13, 2025):
Spot gold continued its rally, climbing as much as 1% to a record intraday high of $4,059.87 per ounce, surpassing last Wednesday’s $4,059.05 record. Persistent safe-haven demand was fueled by escalating international trade tensions, rising geopolitical risks, expectations of Fed rate cuts, and political instability in multiple countries.

Global oil prices plummeted amid renewed concerns over demand. WTI crude fell sharply below the $58 mark, closing at $57.879 per barrel—a five-month low and the largest single-day drop since June 23—down 5.32%. Brent crude closed at $62.04 per barrel, down 4.48%.

Key Data and Headlines from the Previous Day:

• Dollar Moves:
  The U.S. dollar fell sharply on Friday as former President Trump’s renewed threats of tariffs rekindled concerns over the impact of a potential trade war on the U.S. economy. Commodity-linked currencies, including the Australian dollar, declined, while the euro and yen strengthened. Juan Perez, Trading Director at Monex USA, commented: “Ultimately, this does bring many negative effects to the U.S. economy.”

• The dollar index closed down 0.4% at 98.99 in New York. Despite this, it recorded a 1.66% weekly gain—the largest since September 2024—after regional fiscal concerns supported the yen and euro. Traders remain focused on when the U.S. federal government will reopen and on economic data that could influence Fed policy.

• Upcoming Inflation Data:
  The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics announced that the September Consumer Price Index will be released on October 24 to assist the Social Security Administration in determining the 2026 cost-of-living adjustment. Many Fed officials have expressed concerns about inflation risks in recent meetings.

• Fed Rate Expectations:
  CME Group’s FedWatch tool indicates a 97% probability that the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points in October, with a 92% probability of an additional cut in December.

Global Market Highlights:

• Japan:
  Following the unexpected election of fiscal dove Sanae Takaichi as leader of the Liberal Democratic Party, markets fear the Bank of Japan may not raise rates this year, raising concerns about potential yen support measures. Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato emphasized vigilance against excessive forex market volatility. Takaichi reiterated she does not want to trigger an excessive decline in the yen.

  • The yen strengthened to 151.73 per USD in New York, up 0.86%, although the weekly dollar/yen gain was 2.9%, the largest since September 2024. Analysts note that the yen’s performance around 155.5 could indicate renewed market concern.

• France & Eurozone:
  Political instability in France weakened the euro. The EUR/USD rose 0.38% to $1.1607 on the day but fell 1.15% for the week—the largest weekly decline since July. President Macron held a critical meeting to appoint a new prime minister before his Friday deadline, while the French central bank warned that political turmoil is hurting economic growth. Concerns over France’s budget deficit and slowing growth in other major economies like Germany have added pressure.

• Canada:
  Canada added 60,400 jobs in September, surprising markets and boosting the Canadian dollar. USD/CAD closed at 1.40, up 0.15%.

• Oil Markets:
  Brent and WTI crude fell over 3% on Friday after Trump threatened additional tariffs, adding to concerns about already weak demand. Geopolitical developments, including a Gaza ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, reduced risk premiums. Analysts note that OPEC’s gradual withdrawal from prior production cuts and increasing North and South American supply are also weighing on prices.

• Gold & Silver:
  Gold trimmed some gains on Friday after hitting above $4,000 per ounce amid tariff concerns and risk-off sentiment. Spot gold ended at $4,010.43 (+0.87%), marking an eighth consecutive weekly gain. Spot silver rose 1.51% to $49.97, with a record high of $51.22 reached earlier. Silver’s YTD gain exceeds 73%, with December Comex silver at $47.32.

• Other Metals:
  Platinum closed at $1,596.55, down 1.4% for the week. Palladium fell 0.3% to $1,406.87, but recorded a weekly gain of over 12.6%.

Technical Analysis:

• Dollar Index (DXY):
  Short-term resistance: 99.35–99.40; key resistance: 99.70–99.75
  Short-term support: 98.70–98.75; key support: 98.40–98.45
  Outlook: Likely to decline after short-term rally; trade within 99.35–98.70 range

• EUR/USD:
  Resistance: 1.1640–1.1645; key resistance: 1.1670–1.1675
  Support: 1.1565–1.1570; key support: 1.1520–1.1525
  Outlook: Short-term pullback possible, with upward trend potential if holding above 1.1665

• Gold (XAU/USD):
  Resistance: 4,065–4,066; key resistance: 4,077–4,078
  Support: 3,989–3,990; key support: 3,956–3,957
  Outlook: Likely to decline after short-term rally; trade range 4,066–3,990

Major Market Data & Economic Events:

• US Market Close:
  Dow: -1.9%
  S&P 500: -2.7%
  Nasdaq: -3.5% (largest single-day drop since April 10)
  Tech stocks led losses: Amazon -5%, Tesla -5%, Nvidia -5%, Apple -3.45%
  Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index: down 6%+; Alibaba & Baidu down 8%+, Bilibili down 9%

• European Market Close:
  CAC40: -1.53% | DAX30: -1.5% | FTSE100: -0.86% | Euro Stoxx 50: -1.68%

• Commodities:
  Spot gold: $4,010.43 (+0.87%)
  Spot silver: $49.97 (+1.51%)

CWG Market Strategy & Recommendations:

• USD: Short on rallies; stop-loss 30+ pips; take profit at target levels before U.S. market open.

• USD Index: Sell near 99.35–98.70 range, 30-pip stop-loss.

• EUR/USD: Buy near 1.1640–1.1570, 40-pip stop-loss.

• GBP/USD: Buy near 1.3390–1.3285, 40-pip stop-loss.

• USD/CHF: Sell near 0.8060–0.7975, 40-pip stop-loss.

• USD/JPY: Sell near 152.90–150.85, 40-pip stop-loss.

• AUD/USD: Sell near 0.6545–0.6445, 40-pip stop-loss.

• USD/CAD: Buy near 1.4030–1.3970, 30-pip stop-loss.

• Gold: Sell near 4,066–3,990, $15 stop-loss.

Risk Management:

• Risk tolerance <20%: 0.1 lot per $2,000

• Risk 20–50%: 0.1 lot per $1,000

• Risk >50%: 0.2–0.3 lot per $1,000