Market Digest:

Global markets began the week on a cautious yet stabilizing note, with gold surging past $4,100 to new records amid safe-haven demand driven by U.S.–China tariff risks, a lingering government shutdown, and mounting Fed rate-cut expectations.

The U.S. Dollar Index (USDX) rebounded above 99.00 after Trump softened his 100% tariff threat on China, while USD/JPY recovered as risk appetite returned.

Meanwhile, USD/CAD held firm above 1.40, supported by upbeat Canadian jobs data that reduced BoC rate-cut bets, and WTI oil climbed from five-month lows as ceasefire hopes in Gaza improved sentiment.

Across Asia, China’s import surge hinted at trade resilience despite U.S. pressure, while Europe faced renewed headwinds as French political instability weighed on the euro.

With traders eyeing Powell’s speech, RBA minutes, and key U.K. jobs data, volatility remains high as monetary policy expectations continue to steer global momentum.

Technical Analysis:

EUR/USD – Extends Decline Below 1.1600 As Bearish Momentum Deepens
USD/CAD – Extends Rally Above 1.4000 As Bullish Momentum Strengthens
XAU/USD – Gold Pushes to Fresh Records as Momentum Stretches Above $4,100

EUR/USD – Extends Decline Below 1.1600 As Bearish Momentum Deepens

Technical Analysis:
EUR/USD remains under bearish pressure, consolidating near 1.1560 after failing to reclaim the 1.1640 zone.
Momentum indicators reinforce downside sentiment, with widening MACD histograms and an RSI near oversold territory pointing to persistent weakness.
Price action stays below key moving averages, and Bollinger Band expansion suggests potential continuation toward 1.1400 support if bearish pressure persists.

Technical Indicators & Key Levels:

• RSI (14): 38 – Bearish market signal

• MACD (12,26,9): MACD line < Signal line – Bearish crossover

• Histogram widening – Increasing momentum

• Bollinger Bands (20,2): Price riding lower band – strong selling pressure

• Moving Averages (D1): 20 & 50 EMA below price – medium-term bearish trend; 100 EMA breaking below – weakening bullish momentum; 200 EMA above – long-term bullish trend

Key Levels:

• Major Resistance: 1.1640, then 1.1670

• Major Support: 1.1400, then 1.1380

USD/CAD – Extends Rally Above 1.4000 As Bullish Momentum Strengthens

Technical Analysis:
USD/CAD maintains its upward trajectory above 1.4000, buoyed by strong momentum and firm technical structure.
RSI hovers near 70, reflecting sustained bullish pressure, while widening MACD histograms and Bollinger Bands confirm an active trend with heightened volatility.
Price consolidation near multi-month highs suggests a break above 1.4260 could open the path toward 1.4390, while immediate support rests at 1.3980.

Technical Indicators & Key Levels:

• RSI (14): 70 – Bullish

• MACD (12,26,9): MACD line > Signal line – bullish crossover

• Bollinger Bands (20,2): Price riding upper band – strong buying pressure

• Moving Averages (D1): 20, 50, 100 EMA above price – medium/long-term bullish trend; 200 EMA breaking above – weakening bearish momentum

Key Levels:

• Major Resistance: 1.4260, then 1.4390

• Major Support: 1.3980, then 1.3910

XAU/USD – Gold Pushes to Fresh Records as Momentum Stretches Above $4,100

Technical Analysis:
Gold surged to a fresh all-time high above $4,100 amid persistent risk aversion and policy uncertainty.
Technical momentum remains firmly bullish, though RSI at 81 signals potential profit-taking.
Short-term retracement toward $3,900 cannot be ruled out before renewed attempts to test $4,200 resistance.

Technical Indicators & Key Levels:

• RSI (14): 81 – Overbought signal

• MACD (12,26,9): MACD line > Signal line – bullish crossover

• Bollinger Bands (20,2): Price above upper band – possible retracement

• Moving Averages (D1): 20, 50, 100 & 200 EMA above price – long-term bullish trend

Key Levels:

• Major Resistance: 4,100, then 4,200

• Major Support: 3,900, then 3,800

Economic News:

1. XAU/USD – Gold Surges Past $4,100 as Trade War Fears and Fed Cut Bets Drive Safe-Haven Demand

• Drivers: US–China trade escalation, Fed rate-cut expectations, ongoing U.S. government shutdown

• Impacted Pairs: XAU/USD – reached $4,117 before consolidating at $4,110

2. USOIL – WTI Crude Oil Rebounds from 5-Month Low

• Drivers: Easing trade tensions, Gaza ceasefire

• Impacted Pairs: USOIL – rebounded from $58.20 to around $59.50

3. CNH – China Trade Surplus Narrows as Imports Surge

• Impacted Pairs: USD/CNH – dipped to 7.1340, rebounded to 7.1368; AUD/USD – 0.6517; NZD/USD – 0.5726

4. JPY – Yen Weakens on Political Uncertainty and Risk-On Sentiment

• Impacted Pairs: USD/JPY – 152.22; EUR/JPY – 176.17; GBP/JPY – 203.01

5. EUR – Political Uncertainty in France Pressures Euro

• Impacted Pairs: EUR/USD – 1.1570; EUR/CHF – 0.9304; EUR/GBP – below 0.8700

6. CAD – Strong Labor Data Supports Loonie

• Impacted Pairs: USD/CAD – 1.4000; EUR/CAD – 1.6240; GBP/CAD – 1.8710; CAD/JPY – 108.49

7. USD – Tariff Threat & Softened Rhetoric Shape Dollar Reversal

• Impacted Pairs: USD/JPY – 152.30; USD/CAD – 1.4035; USD/CHF – 0.8040; USDX – above 99.20

Upcoming Economic Indicators – 14 October

• AUD: RBA Meeting Minutes + NAB Business Confidence (Sep)

• GBP: Employment Change + Unemployment Rate (Aug)

• EUR: ZEW Economic Sentiment Index

• CAD: Building Permits MoM

• USD: Fed Chair Powell Speech