CWG Market Insight: US CPI Meets Expectations, Gold Holds Above 4,400; Dollar Index Awaits Inflation Path Confirmation
At the 08:40 Beijing cutoff, spot-gold bid was 4,436.70 and delayed DXY was 99.93. EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD and USD/JPY were 1.1529, 1.3497, 0.7065, 159.34. Source timestamps differ; this is not a sy
Market overview
At the 08:40 Beijing cutoff, spot-gold bid was 4,436.70 and delayed DXY was 99.93. EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD and USD/JPY were 1.1529, 1.3497, 0.7065, 159.34. Source timestamps differ; this is not a synchronized snapshot.
Key takeaway
July U.S. CPI is confirmed: headline +0.1% m/m and +3.4% y/y; core +0.2% m/m and +2.5% y/y. Ahead of tonight's PPI, the dollar, gold and major FX pairs may keep repricing the inflation path; any range break needs live confirmation.
Core market data
| Asset | Latest | Change | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | 4,436.70 | +29.00 (+0.66%) | spot gold bid; support 4,407.70 / 4,361.70; resistance 4,449.90 / 4,475.00.
[S1] 2026-08-13 08:40 Beijing Time · verified
|
| DXY | 99.93 | -0.09 (-0.09%) | delayed U.S. Dollar Index cash-index reference; support 99.92 / 99.75; resistance 99.96 / 100.01.
[S2] 2026-08-13 08:34 Beijing Time · verified
|
| EUR/USD | 1.1529 | +0.0002 (+0.02%) | spot FX reference quote; support 1.1522 / 1.1500; resistance 1.1533 / 1.1550.
[S3] 2026-08-13 08:04 Beijing Time · verified
|
| GBP/USD | 1.3497 | +0.0001 (+0.01%) | spot FX reference quote; support 1.3489 / 1.3470; resistance 1.3499 / 1.3520.
[S4] 2026-08-13 07:48 Beijing Time · verified
|
| AUD/USD | 0.7065 | +0.0001 (+0.01%) | spot FX reference quote; support 0.7058 / 0.7040; resistance 0.7068 / 0.7085.
[S5] 2026-08-13 08:34 Beijing Time · verified
|
| USD/JPY | 159.34 | -0.09 (-0.05%) | spot FX reference quote; support 159.29 / 159.00; resistance 159.52 / 159.80.
[S6] 2026-08-13 08:24 Beijing Time · verified
|
Market review
July U.S. CPI was Headline +0.1% m/m, +3.4% y/y; core +0.2% m/m, +2.5% y/y; real earnings showed Real hourly earnings -0.1% m/m and -0.2% y/y; real weekly earnings unchanged m/m. Latest official H.15 closes: 2Y 4.22%, 10Y 4.70%, 30Y 5.24%.
1 Inflation data confirmed
July U.S. CPI was Headline +0.1% m/m, +3.4% y/y; core +0.2% m/m, +2.5% y/y. No unverified forecast is added.
2 Non-synchronous quotes
DXY is delayed, gold is a spot bid and FX values are separate page references; timestamps must be read independently.
Market dynamics
1 Gold range
Gold bid is 4,436.70 within the verified 4,361.70-4,449.90 day range.
2 Treasury curve
Latest official closes are 2Y 4.22%, 10Y 4.70% and 30Y 5.24%.
3 Tonight's key event
July U.S. PPI is scheduled for 08-13 20:30 Beijing Time; no actual value was available at cutoff.
Economic calendar - confirmed times only
| Beijing time | Region | Confirmed event | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08-13 20:30 | US | U.S. PPI - July | Time verified; not released at cutoff |
| 08-18 20:30 | US | U.S. import and export prices - July | Time verified; not released at cutoff |
| 08-21 22:00 | US | U.S. state employment and unemployment - July | Time verified; not released at cutoff |
Cross-asset verified comparison
Technical levels
Levels use only the latest verified references. Recheck live prices and spreads before acting.
| Asset | Reference | Resistance | Support | Invalidation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DXY | 99.93 | 99.96 / 100.01 | 99.92 / 99.75 | Below 99.75 |
| EUR/USD | 1.1529 | 1.1533 / 1.1550 | 1.1522 / 1.1500 | Below 1.1500 |
| GBP/USD | 1.3497 | 1.3499 / 1.3520 | 1.3489 / 1.3470 | Below 1.3470 |
| USD/JPY | 159.34 | 159.52 / 159.80 | 159.29 / 159.00 | Below 159.00 |
| AUD/USD | 0.7065 | 0.7068 / 0.7085 | 0.7058 / 0.7040 | Below 0.7040 |
| XAU/USD | 4,436.70 | 4,449.90 / 4,475.00 | 4,407.70 / 4,361.70 | Below 4,361.70 |
Released data
| U.S. CPI - July | Headline +0.1% m/m, +3.4% y/y; core +0.2% m/m, +2.5% y/y | [S9] |
| U.S. real earnings - July | Real hourly earnings -0.1% m/m and -0.2% y/y; real weekly earnings unchanged m/m | [S10] |
| U.S. Employment Situation - July | Payrolls -23,000; unemployment 4.1%; hourly earnings +3.2% y/y | [S11] |
| U.S. Q2 real GDP, advance | +1.5% annualized; Q1 +2.1% | [S12] |
Conditional scenarios
| Trigger | Confirmation | Invalidation | Path |
|---|---|---|---|
| DXY above 100.01 | Gold below 4,407.70 and EUR/USD below 1.1500 | DXY below 99.75 | A firmer dollar may pressure gold and non-dollar currencies. |
| DXY below 99.75 | Gold above 4,449.90 and EUR/USD above 1.1533 | DXY back above 100.01 | A softer dollar may allow gold and non-dollar currencies to recover. |
Not a trading instruction. Confirm all triggers with live platform data.
Hot markets: charts and key ranges
Four panels cover XAU/USD, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD and position each reference within its verified day range; they do not depict an intraday path.
