Market Digest

Global financial markets entered the final trading session of June with investors focused on a packed economic calendar that could shape expectations for Federal Reserve policy. While the U.S. dollar eased modestly following reduced geopolitical tensions, traders remain cautious ahead of key U.S. labour market releases, including JOLTS Job Openings and Nonfarm Payrolls later this week.

Gold remained under heavy pressure, trading below the psychological $4,100 level as rising Treasury yields and expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain higher interest rates continued to reduce demand for non-yielding assets. Although easing U.S.-Iran tensions lowered safe-haven demand, investors remain alert to any economic surprises that could quickly shift market sentiment.

Crude oil stabilized above the $70 support level after recent sharp declines. Ongoing security concerns surrounding the Strait of Hormuz continued to provide support, offsetting optimism surrounding renewed diplomatic talks between the United States and Iran. However, expectations of improved global oil supply continue to limit upside momentum.

In the currency market, the Japanese yen remained under significant pressure despite stronger domestic retail sales, with USD/JPY approaching multi-decade highs as wide interest-rate differentials continued to favour the U.S. dollar. Sterling recovered modestly after renewed political assurances regarding fiscal discipline, although GBP/USD continues to trade within a broader bearish trend.

Technical Analysis

USD/JPY – Bullish Trend Targets Fresh Multi-Decade Highs

USD/JPY continues to trade within a strong bullish channel after breaking above previous resistance around 160.50. Price remains comfortably above all major moving averages, while MACD and Bollinger Bands continue to support upward momentum. Although RSI has entered overbought territory, indicating the possibility of short-term consolidation, the broader trend remains bullish while price holds above 160.50. Immediate resistance is located near 163.90, followed by 164.50.

GBP/USD – Bearish Momentum Persists Below Key Resistance

GBP/USD remains under selling pressure after failing to reclaim the 1.3320 resistance zone. The pair continues trading below all major moving averages, with MACD remaining negative and price hugging the lower Bollinger Band. Unless buyers regain control above 1.3320, downside risks remain toward 1.3060 and potentially 1.3020.

USOIL – Bears Defend Key Support Near $70

WTI crude oil remains in a dominant downtrend despite stabilising around the important $70.30 support area. Technical indicators continue to favour sellers as price trades below all major moving averages and momentum indicators remain negative. However, oversold RSI conditions suggest that short-term corrective rebounds remain possible. A decisive break below $70.30 could expose the next major support around $62.30.

Economic News

Gold Extends Losses Ahead of U.S. Labour Data

Gold continued to weaken as investors positioned for another busy week of U.S. economic releases. Rising expectations that the Federal Reserve could maintain restrictive monetary policy, together with easing geopolitical tensions, reduced demand for safe-haven assets. Markets now await labour market data that could determine the next major direction for bullion.

Oil Finds Stability Despite Supply Optimism

WTI crude stabilized above $70 as ongoing security concerns in the Strait of Hormuz continued to support prices despite improving diplomatic relations between the U.S. and Iran. Traders remain focused on global supply developments, with geopolitical headlines expected to remain the primary driver of short-term price action.

Japanese Yen Remains Under Pressure

The Japanese yen continued trading near multi-decade lows despite stronger retail sales and growing expectations for additional Bank of Japan policy tightening later this year. Wide interest-rate differentials continue to favour the U.S. dollar, while speculation surrounding possible government intervention remains elevated.

Sterling Recovers on Political Stability

The British pound edged higher after renewed commitments to fiscal discipline reduced investor concerns surrounding the UK's political transition. However, upcoming UK economic data and U.S. labour market releases are expected to remain the primary drivers of GBP/USD in the near term.

Dollar Pulls Back Ahead of Key Economic Releases

The U.S. dollar eased modestly as geopolitical tensions subsided and investors locked in profits following its recent rally. Despite the short-term correction, expectations for higher-for-longer Federal Reserve interest rates continue to provide underlying support. This week's JOLTS Job Openings, Consumer Confidence, ADP Employment, and Nonfarm Payrolls reports are expected to determine the dollar's next major move.

Upcoming Economic Events

Investors will closely monitor German Preliminary CPI, Canadian GDP, U.S. Consumer Confidence, and JOLTS Job Openings for fresh clues on global economic momentum and central bank policy expectations. Stronger-than-expected U.S. labour market data could reinforce expectations for additional Federal Reserve tightening, while softer releases may extend the recent pullback in the U.S. dollar and support gold and major currencies.