Market Digest

Markets shifted into defensive mode as escalating Strait of Hormuz tensions kept oil elevated and boosted safe-haven demand for the US dollar.

WTI crude surged for a fourth consecutive session toward $97 as traders prioritized supply disruption risks over softer inventory data, reinforcing inflation concerns across global markets.

Gold slipped back toward the $4,690 region as rising Treasury yields and stronger US PMI data offset geopolitical support and pressured demand for non-yielding assets.

The US dollar held near two-week highs after upbeat manufacturing and services data reinforced expectations the Federal Reserve may maintain a higher-for-longer policy stance.

Meanwhile, sterling remained relatively resilient after stronger UK PMI figures, though broader dollar strength limited upside progress, while the New Zealand dollar stayed supported by rising RBNZ hike expectations despite softer risk sentiment weighing on crosses.

Technical structures continue to point toward elevated volatility, with GBP/USD defending bullish support, NZD/USD stalling beneath resistance, and crude oil coiling for a potential breakout.

Technical Analysis

NZD/USD – Kiwi Stalls Below Resistance as Recovery Momentum Fades

NZD/USD remains in recovery mode but is struggling to extend gains beyond the 0.5950 resistance zone.

Momentum signals still lean constructive, although flattening RSI and a shrinking MACD histogram suggest upside pressure is beginning to slow.

A sustained break above 0.5950 could reopen the path toward 0.6000, while a loss of 0.5870 support may trigger a deeper retracement toward 0.5680.

Key Levels

• Resistance: 0.5950, 0.6000
• Support: 0.5870, 0.5680

GBP/USD – Bullish Structure Holds Above Key Support

GBP/USD has pulled back from recent highs near 1.3565, but the broader recovery structure remains intact while price holds above 1.3430.

Momentum indicators continue favoring buyers, and a successful defense of the 20 EMA could fuel another attempt toward 1.3565, with 1.3695 the next major upside objective.

Failure to hold support could expose a correction toward 1.3185.

Key Levels

• Resistance: 1.3565, 1.3695
• Support: 1.3430, 1.3185

USOIL – Crude Rebounds but Momentum Slows Below Resistance

Crude remains in a strong broader uptrend, though momentum is slowing beneath major resistance at 112.60.

RSI remains constructive and MACD stays bullish, but fading histogram strength suggests buyers may be losing urgency. Bollinger Band compression signals a larger directional move could be approaching.

Key Levels

• Resistance: 112.60, 122.40
• Support: 88.40, 83.55

Economic News Highlights

Gold Pressured by Higher Yields and Firmer Dollar

Gold weakened as stronger Treasury yields and upbeat US PMI data lifted the dollar and reduced demand for bullion.

While geopolitical tensions continue to offer some safe-haven support, macro headwinds remain dominant unless yields ease or risks escalate further.

Oil Surges as Supply Risks Dominate

WTI extended gains as traders focused on Hormuz disruption risks and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty rather than softer inventory data.

If supply disruption fears persist, elevated energy prices could continue reinforcing inflation concerns and central bank caution.

Kiwi Supported by RBNZ Hike Expectations

The New Zealand dollar held relatively firm as stronger inflation expectations kept RBNZ tightening bets alive, though fragile global sentiment limited broader upside.

Cross-pair performance remained mixed as traders balanced domestic support against external risk pressures.

Sterling Resilient Despite Safe-Haven Dollar Demand

Strong UK PMI data helped cushion sterling losses and supported expectations the Bank of England may need to remain restrictive.

However, broader defensive flows into the dollar kept GBP gains contained.

Dollar Supported by Strong Data and Higher-for-Longer Fed Pricing

The US dollar remained well-supported as stronger US PMIs, rising oil-driven inflation concerns, and reduced Fed easing expectations reinforced bullish sentiment.

Unless growth weakens materially or geopolitical risks ease, the greenback may remain supported near term.

Upcoming Economic Indicator

GBP – UK Retail Sales m/m

Forecast: 0.0%
Previous: -0.4%

UK Retail Sales will be closely watched as a gauge of consumer resilience and growth momentum.

• Above forecast: Bullish for GBP
• Below forecast: Bearish for GBP
• In line: Neutral impact on GBP

Trading Outlook

Key themes driving markets remain:

• Safe-haven dollar demand from geopolitical tensions
• Oil-led inflation risks supporting higher rates expectations
• Gold pressured by yields despite geopolitical support
• NZD supported by hawkish RBNZ repricing
• Sterling sensitive to UK Retail Sales as the next catalyst

Volatility remains elevated across commodities and FX, with breakout risks rising.