Market Digest

Global markets continue to lean toward a risk-on environment as optimism surrounding US–Iran negotiations and softer US inflation data weigh on the US dollar, which is now hovering near multi-week lows around the 98.00 level.

This shift has supported major currency pairs, with EUR/USD and GBP/USD holding firm near recent highs. Commodity-linked currencies, particularly the Australian dollar, have also benefited from improved sentiment, although domestic economic weakness has limited further upside.

Gold prices remain range-bound near the 4,800 level, as reduced safe-haven demand offsets the supportive effect of a weaker US dollar. Meanwhile, oil prices are stabilizing around the 91 level, caught between ongoing supply disruptions and easing geopolitical tensions.

From a technical perspective, bullish momentum continues to dominate across FX markets. However, several key resistance levels are now being tested, increasing the likelihood of short-term pullbacks. Overall, market conditions reflect a delicate balance between easing geopolitical risks, softer inflation expectations, and fragile macroeconomic signals, creating a highly reactive trading environment.

Technical Analysis

AUD/USD – Tests Resistance as Bullish Momentum Strengthens

AUD/USD remains within a strong bullish structure, with price action holding above all major moving averages, confirming sustained upward momentum.

Momentum indicators continue to support further gains, with RSI elevated and MACD showing expanding bullish momentum. However, price has moved above the upper Bollinger Band near the 0.7150 resistance zone, indicating overbought conditions and increasing the likelihood of a short-term pullback or consolidation.

A sustained move above resistance could open the path toward 0.7265, while a rejection may lead to a retracement toward support at 0.6850.

Key Levels

• Resistance: 0.7150, 0.7265
• Support: 0.6850, 0.6735

GBP/USD – Bullish Momentum Builds Near Key Resistance

GBP/USD is showing a strong bullish recovery, with price holding above all major moving averages and signaling a shift toward a developing uptrend.

Technical indicators confirm strengthening upside momentum, with RSI and MACD both supporting continuation. Bollinger Bands indicate strong buying pressure, as price continues to track the upper band.

The pair is now approaching a key resistance zone near 1.3695. A confirmed breakout could extend gains toward 1.3840, while failure to break higher may trigger a pullback toward 1.3430.

Key Levels

• Resistance: 1.3695, 1.3840
• Support: 1.3430, 1.3185

USOIL – Bearish Pressure Emerges Within Broader Uptrend

Oil prices are showing early signs of a short-term bearish pullback within a broader bullish structure. Price has broken below the 20 EMA and is approaching the 50 EMA, which may act as a support zone.

Momentum indicators suggest weakening bullish strength, with RSI moving toward neutral territory and MACD momentum fading. Bollinger Bands confirm increased selling pressure, with price tracking the lower band.

A sustained break below 88.40 could open the path toward deeper support at 83.55, while holding above this level may allow for a rebound within the broader trend.

Key Levels

• Resistance: 112.60, 122.40
• Support: 88.40, 83.55

Economic News Highlights

Gold – Range-Bound as Risk Sentiment Offsets Dollar Weakness

Gold prices remained stable near the 4,800 level after failing to sustain gains above recent highs.

While weaker US inflation data and a softer dollar provided underlying support, improving sentiment around US–Iran negotiations reduced demand for safe-haven assets, keeping gold within a consolidation range.

Oil – Stabilizes Amid Mixed Supply and Geopolitical Signals

Oil prices traded steadily near the 91 level as markets balanced ongoing supply disruptions with expectations of potential de-escalation in geopolitical tensions.

This balance between risk factors has resulted in a range-bound market, with traders closely monitoring developments related to supply flows and diplomatic progress.

Australian Dollar – Gains on Risk Sentiment but Faces Domestic Headwinds

The Australian dollar strengthened on improved global risk appetite and US dollar weakness. However, domestic economic concerns, including a sharp decline in consumer confidence, have limited sustained upside momentum.

Pound Sterling – Holds Near Highs Amid Mixed Drivers

The British pound remained near multi-week highs, supported by expectations of a relatively hawkish Bank of England stance.

However, ongoing growth concerns and easing inflation pressures continue to limit stronger upside momentum.

US Dollar – Weakness Persists Near Multi-Week Lows

The US dollar remains under pressure, trading near multi-week lows as improving global sentiment reduces safe-haven demand.

Softer inflation data has further weakened expectations of aggressive Federal Reserve tightening, reinforcing the downward bias in the dollar.

Key Events to Watch – April 16

USD – Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index

• Forecast: 10.3
• Previous: 18.1

A weaker reading may signal slowing economic momentum and weigh on the US dollar, while stronger data could support the currency by easing concerns about economic slowdown.

USD – Initial Jobless Claims

• Forecast: 213K
• Previous: 219K

Labor market data remains a critical indicator for Federal Reserve policy expectations. Lower claims would support the dollar, while higher claims could reinforce expectations of policy easing.