Market Digest

Global markets shifted decisively into a risk-on environment as renewed optimism surrounding US–Iran negotiations reduced geopolitical tensions and softened inflation expectations. This shift triggered broad movements across commodities and currency markets.

Gold surged toward the 4,840 region, supported by easing inflation concerns and growing expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts. In contrast, oil prices declined sharply toward the 92 level as supply fears eased despite lingering geopolitical uncertainty.

The US dollar extended its decline for a seventh consecutive session, falling to multi-week lows. This weakness supported gains in major currency pairs such as EUR/USD and GBP/USD, while placing pressure on USD/CHF and USD/JPY.

The New Zealand dollar emerged as the strongest performer, driven by hawkish expectations from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand and improving global risk sentiment. Meanwhile, the euro advanced on dollar weakness, although gains remained capped by uncertainty surrounding European Central Bank policy.

Markets are now balancing easing inflation pressures and shifting monetary policy expectations against ongoing geopolitical developments, creating a high-volatility environment in the near term.

Technical Analysis

NZD/USD – Bullish Momentum Builds as Price Tests Resistance

NZD/USD is showing a strengthening bullish structure, with price action breaking above key moving averages and signaling a transition from bearish to bullish conditions across multiple timeframes.

Momentum indicators support further upside, although overbought signals are beginning to emerge as price trades above the upper Bollinger Band. This suggests a higher probability of a short-term pullback near the 0.5950 resistance level.

A confirmed breakout above resistance could extend gains toward 0.5995, while a failure to hold above 0.5890 may trigger a corrective move lower.

Key Levels

• Resistance: 0.5950, 0.5995
• Support: 0.5890, 0.5680

EUR/USD – Bullish Momentum Strengthens Near Key Resistance

EUR/USD continues to exhibit strong bullish momentum, supported by price holding above all major moving averages and a confirmed bullish MACD crossover.

Rising RSI levels and expanding Bollinger Bands indicate increasing volatility and sustained buying pressure. However, overbought conditions suggest the potential for a short-term correction near the 1.1815 resistance zone.

A breakout above this level could open the path toward 1.1915, while a pullback may retest support at 1.1770 or extend toward 1.1630 if momentum weakens further.

Key Levels

• Resistance: 1.1815, 1.1915
• Support: 1.1770, 1.1630

XAU/USD – Consolidation Below Resistance Within Bullish Structure

Gold remains in a strong bullish trend, supported by price holding above all major moving averages. However, short-term momentum is softening as indicated by a bearish MACD crossover and narrowing Bollinger Bands.

Price action near the upper band reflects sustained buying interest, but the current consolidation phase suggests reduced volatility ahead of a potential breakout.

A move above 4,880 could trigger further upside toward 5,085, while failure to maintain momentum may lead to a pullback toward 4,381 or lower support at 4,195.

Key Levels

• Resistance: 4,880, 5,085
• Support: 4,381, 4,195

Economic News Highlights

Gold – Gains Driven by Dollar Weakness and Softer Inflation Expectations

Gold rallied strongly as renewed optimism around US–Iran negotiations weakened the US dollar and reduced inflation pressures.

The shift in expectations has increased the likelihood of Federal Reserve rate cuts, supporting gold’s upward momentum despite periods of consolidation.

Oil – Declines as Supply Concerns Ease

Oil prices dropped sharply as markets priced in improved diplomatic prospects and a potential normalization of supply conditions.

Although geopolitical risks remain, easing supply fears and weaker demand expectations contributed to sustained downside pressure.

New Zealand Dollar – Strong Performance on Hawkish Policy Outlook

The New Zealand dollar strengthened significantly, supported by expectations of future rate hikes from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand and improving global risk sentiment.

This combination has reinforced bullish momentum across NZD pairs.

Euro – Gains Supported by Dollar Weakness

The euro advanced as the US dollar weakened, although gains were limited by ongoing uncertainty regarding European Central Bank policy and economic outlook.

US Dollar – Sustained Weakness on Soft Data and Risk-On Sentiment

The US dollar declined for a seventh consecutive session, reaching multi-week lows as softer inflation data and improving global sentiment reduced demand for safe-haven assets.

This shift reflects changing expectations around Federal Reserve policy, with markets increasingly pricing in potential rate cuts.

Key Events to Watch – April 15

USD – Empire State Manufacturing Index

• Forecast: 0.6
• Previous: -0.2

A stronger reading may support the US dollar by signaling improved economic momentum, while weaker data could reinforce expectations of monetary easing.

NZD – RBNZ Governor Speech

Central bank commentary will be closely monitored for signals on future policy direction. A hawkish tone may further support the New Zealand dollar, while dovish remarks could limit recent gains.