Market Digest

Global markets remain caught between escalating geopolitical risks and shifting macroeconomic expectations following the breakdown of US–Iran negotiations. The resulting uncertainty has triggered sharp volatility across commodities and foreign exchange markets.

Oil prices initially surged amid fears of supply disruptions linked to the Strait of Hormuz but later reversed as optimism around renewed negotiations and alternative supply routes helped stabilize sentiment.

In currency markets, the Japanese yen weakened broadly as rising energy prices increased economic pressure, while the US dollar declined despite traditional safe-haven demand. This reflects a complex environment where easing expectations and shifting positioning are offsetting geopolitical support.

Gold remains under pressure as rising yields and inflation concerns reduce demand for non-yielding assets. Meanwhile, the British pound has shown relative resilience, although gains remain limited by prevailing risk-off sentiment.

Technically, key assets are entering consolidation phases. USD/JPY is holding below 160.25, GBP/USD is testing the 1.3500 region, and oil is stabilizing near $98. These conditions suggest markets are preparing for a breakout, likely driven by upcoming inflation data and geopolitical developments.

Technical Analysis

USD/JPY – Consolidation Below Resistance Within Bullish Structure

USD/JPY continues to trade within a strong bullish structure, supported by price action above all major moving averages. However, the pair is consolidating below the key 160.25 resistance level.

Momentum indicators suggest that upside potential remains intact, although slowing MACD momentum and narrowing Bollinger Bands indicate a pause before the next directional move.

A breakout above 160.25 could open the path toward 163.90, while a pullback below current levels may lead to a retest of support near 157.70 before trend continuation.

Key Levels

• Resistance: 160.25, 163.90
• Support: 157.70, 157.20

GBP/USD – Testing Resistance as Bullish Momentum Builds

GBP/USD is showing signs of a developing bullish reversal, supported by price holding above key short- and medium-term moving averages and breaking above longer-term averages.

Although MACD remains in bearish territory, weakening downside momentum suggests that buyers are regaining control. The 1.3500 level represents a key decision point.

A sustained break higher could extend gains toward 1.3695, while rejection may trigger a pullback toward 1.3430.

Key Levels

• Resistance: 1.3695, 1.3840
• Support: 1.3430, 1.3185

USOIL – Consolidation After Rally Signals Potential Breakout

Oil prices are consolidating near the $98 level following a strong rally, with price action testing the 20 EMA as short-term support.

While the broader trend remains bullish, momentum indicators are weakening, suggesting potential exhaustion. Narrowing Bollinger Bands confirm a consolidation phase, often preceding a breakout.

A move higher could retest resistance near $112.60, while a breakdown may expose support near $88.40.

Key Levels

• Resistance: $112.60, $122.40
• Support: $88.40, $83.55

Economic News Highlights

Gold – Pressure Persists Amid Inflation and Yield Strength

Gold prices declined as rising oil prices fueled inflation concerns and strengthened expectations for a prolonged higher interest rate environment.

Despite geopolitical tensions supporting safe-haven demand, higher yields and a stronger dollar limited upside potential.

Oil – Volatility Driven by Geopolitical Uncertainty

Oil markets experienced sharp volatility following the collapse of US–Iran talks and fears of supply disruption through key shipping routes.

However, partial recovery in supply and renewed diplomatic signals helped stabilize prices after the initial surge.

Japanese Yen – Weakness Continues Amid Rising Energy Costs

The yen weakened significantly as rising oil prices increased economic strain on Japan, reducing its attractiveness as a safe-haven currency.

This has driven strong upward movement in yen crosses across the board.

British Pound – Resilient but Limited by Risk Sentiment

The British pound faced pressure from deteriorating risk sentiment despite support from expectations of tighter monetary policy by the Bank of England.

Gains remain limited as geopolitical uncertainty continues to influence market behavior.

US Dollar – Mixed Flows Keep Direction Uncertain

The US dollar declined for a sixth consecutive session, reflecting a balance between safe-haven demand and expectations of easing geopolitical tensions.

While inflation risks support a cautious Federal Reserve stance, improving sentiment and positioning have limited sustained upside in the currency.

Key Event to Watch – US PPI (April 14)

• Core PPI m/m: 0.5%
• PPI m/m: 1.2%

The Producer Price Index serves as a leading indicator of inflation pressures.

A stronger-than-expected reading may support the US dollar by reinforcing expectations of delayed rate cuts, while weaker data could increase dovish sentiment and weigh on the currency.