Market Digest

Global markets remain in a delicate balance as geopolitical uncertainty, oil price volatility, and weakening US economic data continue to influence sentiment across asset classes.

Gold is holding below the $4,800 level, supported by ongoing safe-haven demand, while oil prices remain highly unstable amid uncertainty surrounding the US–Iran ceasefire and continued supply risks through the Strait of Hormuz.

The Japanese Yen has weakened, as rising energy prices reduce its safe-haven appeal, driving gains in JPY crosses. At the same time, the Euro is stabilizing near the 1.1700 level, supported primarily by US dollar weakness despite underlying concerns about Eurozone growth.

The US Dollar remains under pressure below the 99.00 level, weighed down by softer economic data and mixed risk sentiment.

From a technical perspective, major instruments including USD/JPY, EUR/USD, and oil are entering consolidation phases, with slowing momentum indicating the potential for breakout-driven moves.

Market attention is now firmly focused on the upcoming US CPI release, which is expected to act as the key catalyst for the next directional move across global markets.

Technical Analysis

USD/JPY – Consolidation Below Resistance as Momentum Slows

USD/JPY continues to trade within a broader bullish structure but is currently consolidating below the 160.25 resistance level.

Momentum indicators suggest weakening directional strength, with a neutral RSI, a slowing MACD histogram, and narrowing Bollinger Bands indicating a range-bound environment.

Price action is testing the 20 EMA as short-term support. A break below 157.70 could trigger a deeper correction, while a move above 160.25 would signal a continuation toward higher resistance levels near 163.90–164.50.

EUR/USD – Recovery Faces Overbought Conditions

EUR/USD has entered a recovery phase after breaking above key moving averages, suggesting a potential shift in trend.

However, price action above the upper Bollinger Band indicates overbought conditions, increasing the likelihood of short-term consolidation.

While RSI supports continued upside, the bearish MACD crossover signals that momentum is not fully aligned. Holding above 1.1630 maintains a bullish bias, while a break above 1.1770 would open the path toward 1.1815.

USOIL – Bullish Structure with Slowing Momentum

Oil prices remain within a broader bullish trend, supported by positioning above key moving averages. However, momentum is slowing as price consolidates below the psychological $100 level.

Narrowing Bollinger Bands and a flattening MACD histogram reflect reduced volatility and indecision.

The 20 EMA continues to act as a key support level. A break below this zone could expose downside toward $88.40, while renewed momentum would be required to push prices toward $122.40 and $126.80.

Economic News Highlights

Gold – Consolidation Driven by Mixed Factors

Gold continues to trade within a consolidation range below $4,800, supported by geopolitical uncertainty and softer US yields.

However, fluctuating US dollar strength and shifting expectations around Federal Reserve policy are limiting further upside.

The market remains highly sensitive to incoming data, particularly US CPI, which is expected to determine the next directional move.

Oil – Volatility Driven by Geopolitical Uncertainty

Oil prices continue to experience sharp intraday swings, driven by ongoing uncertainty around the US–Iran ceasefire and supply risks in key shipping routes.

While temporary pullbacks have occurred, the underlying geopolitical risk premium remains partially intact.

Japanese Yen – Weakness Driven by Energy Prices

The Yen remains under pressure as rising oil prices increase Japan’s import costs, reducing its appeal as a safe-haven currency.

This dynamic continues to support upside moves in JPY crosses.

Euro – Stability Supported by Dollar Weakness

The Euro is holding steady near 1.1700, largely supported by weakness in the US Dollar rather than strong domestic fundamentals.

Recent weak economic data from Germany highlights ongoing growth concerns within the Eurozone, limiting the scope for sustained upside.

US Dollar – Awaiting Direction from CPI

The US Dollar remains subdued below the 99.00 level, as softer economic data and declining yields weigh on sentiment.

Although geopolitical uncertainty provides intermittent support, the broader trend remains weak ahead of key inflation data.

Key Event to Watch – US CPI (April 10)

• Core CPI m/m: 0.3% (Previous: 0.2%)
• CPI m/m: 1.0% (Previous: 0.3%)
• CPI y/y: 3.4% (Previous: 2.4%)

The CPI release remains the most important driver of Federal Reserve policy expectations.

A higher-than-expected reading could strengthen the US Dollar and delay rate cuts, while weaker inflation data may reinforce expectations of policy easing and support risk assets.