Market Digest:

Markets were hit by a sharp sentiment reversal after the announcement of a 5-day delay in planned U.S. strikes on Iran, triggering a rapid unwind of risk-off positioning across global assets.

Oil experienced extreme volatility, initially surging above $100 on supply disruption fears before collapsing more than 10% as immediate geopolitical risk eased. Gold followed a similar path, plunging to multi-month lows under pressure from rising yields and a stronger dollar, before rebounding sharply as tensions temporarily cooled.

The U.S. dollar weakened broadly as safe-haven demand faded, pushing the USDX back toward the 99.00 handle. This allowed EUR to recover toward 1.16, while risk-sensitive currencies like AUD stabilized after recent heavy losses.

Despite the temporary shift toward risk-on, underlying geopolitical risks remain unresolved, keeping markets highly reactive and headline-driven. With PMI data ahead, volatility is expected to remain elevated, with potential breakout moves across FX and commodities.

Technical Analysis:

AUD/USD – Pullback Extends Toward Key Support as Momentum Fades
AUD/USD is weakening in the short term after breaking below the 20 EMA, with price now testing the 50 EMA as immediate support. While the broader trend remains bullish above the 100 and 200 EMAs, momentum indicators are softening, with RSI neutral and MACD histogram contracting. A hold above 0.6980 may trigger a rebound, while a break below 0.6910 could expose deeper downside.

EUR/USD – Rebound Faces Resistance as Bearish Structure Holds
EUR/USD continues to trade below key EMAs despite recent recovery attempts. Price is testing the 20 EMA as resistance, with broader bearish structure intact. Momentum remains weak, and failure to break above 1.1630 may reinforce downside pressure toward 1.1415.

USOIL – Sharp Pullback but Bullish Structure Remains Intact
USOIL has corrected sharply from highs above $100 but remains within a broader bullish trend. Price is testing the 20 EMA as dynamic support, with momentum still positive. As long as price holds above 83.55, upside potential remains toward 99.30, while a break lower could trigger deeper correction.

Economic News:

XAU/USD – Gold Rebounds After Sharp Sell-Off on Iran Strike Delay
Gold initially plunged toward multi-month lows near $4,100 as rising yields and inflation fears weighed heavily on the metal. However, prices rebounded strongly toward $4,400+ after the delay in U.S. strikes reduced immediate geopolitical risk and triggered short covering. Despite the bounce, elevated yields continue to cap upside.

USOIL – Oil Collapses as Geopolitical Risk Premium Unwinds
Crude oil prices reversed sharply after the announcement of delayed U.S. action against Iran. After spiking above $100 on fears of supply disruption through the Strait of Hormuz, prices dropped toward the $84–$88 range. The move reflects a rapid unwinding of war premium, though risks remain elevated.

AUD – Aussie Stabilizes After Risk-Off Driven Sell-Off
The Australian dollar came under heavy pressure earlier as geopolitical tensions drove risk aversion, pushing AUD/USD toward 0.6900. Following the sentiment shift, the pair rebounded toward 0.7000. Despite this recovery, broader uncertainty continues to limit upside.

EUR – Euro Recovers as Dollar Weakens on Risk Shift
The euro rebounded strongly as USD weakness followed the Iran strike delay. EUR/USD climbed back toward 1.16, supported by improved risk sentiment and steady ECB expectations. However, the broader trend remains fragile below key resistance.

USD – Dollar Slides as Safe-Haven Demand Fades
The U.S. dollar weakened across the board, with USDX falling toward 99.00–99.20 as markets shifted away from defensive positioning. The move reflects easing geopolitical stress and a pullback in yields, though volatility remains high due to unresolved risks.

Upcoming Economic Indicators to Look Out For – March 24

EUR
PMI data will be key in assessing Eurozone growth momentum. Weak readings could reinforce downside risks, while stronger data may support EUR recovery.

GBP
UK PMI releases will provide insight into economic resilience. Softer data may pressure GBP, while stronger prints could reinforce BoE expectations.

USD
U.S. PMI data remains critical for confirming economic strength. Strong data may support the Fed’s higher-for-longer stance, while weaker data could weigh on the dollar.