Market Digest

Global markets were rocked as a wave of central bank decisions collided with rising geopolitical tensions and surging energy prices.
The US dollar weakened sharply as the euro, yen, and pound rallied following steady but hawkish policy holds, pushing the USDX below 100.
Gold suffered a dramatic sell-off, plunging over 4% as rising US yields and fading rate-cut hopes crushed safe-haven demand.
Oil markets remained volatile, spiking on supply fears before reversing on potential US intervention signals.
Currency markets reflected the chaos, with NZD pressured by weak GDP, GBP boosted by a hawkish BoE, and USD broadly softer against majors.
Bearish momentum dominates FX and gold, with key breakdown levels now in focus. All eyes turn to CAD retail sales for the next directional catalyst.

Technical Analysis

NZD/USD – Bearish Pressure Persists Below Key Resistance
NZD/USD continues to show lower highs and lows under short- and medium-term EMAs. MACD bearish crossover, widening histogram, and RSI below 50 confirm downside momentum. Key levels: Resistance 0.5890 / 0.5950, Support 0.5770 / 0.5725.

GBP/USD – Rebounds Stall Near Resistance
GBP/USD rebounds face strong resistance at the 50 EMA. Mixed indicators and fading momentum suggest range-bound movement with bearish bias unless 1.3695 is broken. Key levels: Resistance 1.3695 / 1.3840, Support 1.3210 / 1.3060.

XAU/USD – Sharp Sell-Off Breaks Key Support
Gold breaks below 50 EMA with widening Bollinger Bands and RSI at 33, signaling strong short-term bearish momentum. Short-term rebound possible, long-term trend still above 100 and 200 EMAs. Key levels: Resistance 4,880 / 5,320, Support 4,530 / 4,320.

Economic News

XAU/USD – Gold Plunges on Yields and Rate-Cut Hopes
Gold dropped 4–5% amid rising US yields and hawkish Fed outlook. Safe-haven appeal diminished despite Middle East tensions. Support zone 4,550–4,588 observed.

USOIL – Oil Pulls Back on US Supply Signals
WTI spiked toward $100 on Middle East supply fears before reversing near $92–$94 after potential US intervention signals. Geopolitical risk remains a key driver.

NZD – Weak GDP Signals Fragile Recovery
Q4 GDP missed forecasts (0.2% QoQ vs 0.4%), weakening NZD/USD to 0.5785–0.5790 before partial recovery. Weak GDP reinforces RBNZ policy flexibility.

GBP – Sterling Rallies on Hawkish BoE Hold
BoE maintained Bank Rate at 3.75% with hawkish messaging, boosting GBP/USD to 1.3460 and EUR/GBP down to 0.8615. Rate expectations shifted toward inflation containment.

USD – Dollar Index Slides on Global Central Bank Holds
USDX dropped from 100.20–100.30 toward 99.00–99.20 as ECB, BOJ, and BOE signaled inflation concern supporting their currencies. USD weakness reflected across EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, and USD/CHF.

Upcoming Economic Indicators – March 20

CAD – Core & Headline Retail Sales m/m
Forecast: Core 1.2% | Retail 1.4%
Previous: Core 0.1% | Retail -0.4%
Stronger-than-expected sales would support CAD and reduce BoC rate-cut expectations; weaker data could pressure the currency.